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1.5 Million People Now Infected in Ukraine: What Will Happen To Other Countries?

According to reports on the progression of regions affected, there are now approximately 1.5 million cases of people infected in the Ukraine with 328 dead from a still-to-be-characterized virus. What would happen in other countries if a virus with a similar transmission rate were to infect their population?

The progression of the outbreak was as follows:

On November 2nd, 255,516 were infected
On November 4th, 478,456 were infected
On November 5th, 633,877 were infected
On November 7th, 871,037 were infected
On November 8th, 969,247 were infected
On November 9th, 1,031,597 were infected
On November 17th, 1,457,564 were infected

In other words, there was a 470% increase in infections in just 15 days. The population of Ukraine is just over 46 million. That means 3% of the population was infected in slightly over two weeks.

Fatality rate is the ratio of deaths within a designated population of people with a particular condition, over a certain period of time. The rate for the 1918 Spanish flu was >2.5%, about 0.1% for the Asian and Hong Kong flus, and <0.1% for other influenza pandemics. Zaïre Ebola Virus is among the deadliest viruses with a case fatality rate of roughly 90%. Fatality rate from swine flu in the U.S. is far less than any type of flu including seasonal influenza.

The fatality rate of the Ukraine pneumonic virus has been calculated by some experts to be somewhere between 0.5% and 0.7%. According to the WHO, the Ukraine virus is causing a fatality rate of .02% which seems to be either a gross miscalculation or intentional deception.

Excluding factors such as age structure, population density, and other specific variables that may change transmission rates, here's a breakdown of what could happen to other countries if the same virus hits with a similar infection rate:

Country
Potential Infected
After 15 days (3%)
Potential Dead
After 15 days (0.6%)
Australia
661,770
3,970
Canada
1,015,410
6,092
China
40,025,700
240,154
Croatia
133,051
798
India
35,181,600
211,089
Mexico
3,226,520
19,359
Norway
145,371
872
Netherlands
497,229
2,983
United Kingdom
1,849,037
11,094
United States
9,238,740
55,432

These would be modest scenarios for more populated countries, especially if populations are dense.

Natural protection solutions at the end of this article.

* A full list of h1n1 vaccine ingredients, alerts and warnings.


Reference Source 226 moz.gov.ua
November 18, 2009

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