Cookies used to be a good thing. Now
it looks as though they've become a bad thing — mostly
linked to folks who don't watch their carbs, their sugar
or their thighs.
Sales tanked last year — down
more than 3.5%. Some consumers started stuffing their otherwise-empty
cookie jars with unsalted nuts, unbuttered popcorn and —
heaven forbid — dried fruit.
It's not that people don't love cookies.
Many today worry more about what's in cookies. They
don't like the carbs. They don't like the sugar. And they
don't like trans fats. Even Sesame Street's Cookie
Monster — newly concerned about nutrition —
is literally singing a new tune: A Cookie is a Sometimes
Food.
But one of the most familiar names
in the business also blames cookie makers for letting cookies
get boring.
"No one's interested in creating the
best cookie anymore," says Wally "Famous" Amos, 67, founder
of the Famous Amos brand, now owned by Kellogg. "All anyone
wants to do is appeal to this or that segment. It's smoke
and mirrors."
Little wonder that Amos is now in the
muffin-making business.
But the kingpins of $4.6 billion cookie
land, from Nabisco to Keebler to Pepperidge Farm, are showing
signs that they would rather rumble than crumble.
Even Pepperidge Farm — best-known
for making fancy cookies preferred by grandmas and knitting
clubs — thinks it has figured out a way to pump much-needed
life into its once-dainty cookies: smash 'em into bits.
Pepperidge Farm hasn't breathed a word
about the new line of cookies — dubbed Whims —
until now. Executives are worried that rivals will respond
before Whims cookie bits hit stores in May. But it's not
just their small size that's unusual. It's also what they
come in: snack canisters that fit into car cup holders.
And Whims will fetch $3.49 a canister — a fat 50-cent
premium over a package of the company's top-selling Milanos.
Last year's industry-sales drop extended
a decline that started in 2002 and will continue through
2009, projects Mintel, the market-research giant. In inflation-adjusted
dollars, it sees a 16% decline during the next five years.
That's a trend cookie makers can no
longer ignore. "There's no question that consumers are evolving
— and we must evolve with them," says Mike Senackerib,
general manager of biscuits at Nabisco, maker of Oreos and
Chips Ahoy.
Nabisco saw sales slip 3.2% last year,
Information Resources says. Others had it worse. Keebler's
sales were off 9.2%. And private-label sales were down 11.4%,
the research firm adds.
"Cookies are still a food consumers
love," insists Brad Davidson, president of the U.S. Snacks
Division at Kellogg. After all, some 92% of American households
still have cookies of some sort in them. "If we ate carrots
all day long, we'd be pretty boring people."
Kids eating fewer cookies
But the writing's on the wall —
kids' bedroom walls, to be precise. Children under age 18
— by far the leading group of cookie consumers —
are abandoning them.
Just nine years ago, the typical kid
ate cookies 61 times annually, reports NPD Group, a consumer
research firm. By last year, that number had shrunk to 49
times. The skid marks are in the icing.
"The biggest change in the cookie market
is that kids are cutting them out," says Harry Balzer, food
guru at researcher NPD Group.
Of course, it's often the kids' parents
doing the cutting. Some 18% of parents surveyed by Mintel
say their children are eating fewer cookies. The effect
will be long term.
"If you're not growing up eating cookies,"
offers Mintel's Lynn Dornblaser, "you're certainly not going
to eat them as an adult."
At the same time, the growth of cookie-snack
replacements, such as yogurt, are exploding. In 1984, the
typical person ate yogurt six times a year. Last year, it
was 19 times, NPD says.
So, pity the Keebler Elf. And that
gap-toothed Girl Scout peddling Thin Mints at your door.
And that cute kid in the commercials who made his living
licking the cream filling from his Oreos.
With nothing to lose, the nation's
major cookie makers are:
•Thinking small. Pepperidge
Farm spent $10 million over three years to develop the Whims
lines, and it will spend an additional $25 million, or so,
beginning in May to market them. One variety is Whims Crunchy
Clusters (small chocolate-cashew chunks). The other is Whims
Crispy Waves (curvy chocolate-chip pieces).
The sizes and shapes aren't modeled
after other cookies; they are modeled after salty snacks,
says Jay Gould, president of Pepperidge Farms. So are the
containers. "The canister is what we call a popcorn container
— to suggest the cookies are pop-able," he says.
Besides its Whims, Pepperidge
Farm last year began to sell mini-versions of its Milanos.
Meanwhile, Keebler is introducing Gripz
— tiny, round Chips Deluxe pieces. They're about the
size of M&Ms and come in single-serve packs.
Does small size mean consumers might
eat more? Gould says he doesn't know. Each container of
Whims Clusters contains about 45 little cookies. The label
suggests a single, 150-calorie serving is about five chunks.
But some experts suggest few folks will stop at that.
The Food and Brand Lab at the University
of Illinois recently studied how 223 consumers reacted to
big and small cookies at an open house. While 51% of those
attending declined to take even one large, 80-calorie cookie,
83% took an average six small cookies — a total of
180 calories.
"People only think cookies are fattening
if the cookies are big," says Brian Wansink, director of
the lab. "Otherwise, they seem to ignore the calories."
Maybe that's why Gould is projecting
first-year sales of Whims to exceed $50 million. The new
cookies could soon be 25% of the company's total business,
he says.
•Offering more indulgence,
not less. Fancy cookie maker Pepperidge Farm knows indulgence
pays off. Its sales were up 1% last year.
Others are getting indulgent, too.
Sales of Double Stuf Oreo (twice the cream filling) have
been on a tear, and Nabisco is introducing a version with
peanut butter cream. It also just launched Milk Chocolate
Covered Oreos.
Keebler is test-marketing Keebler Sensations
— baked with big chunks of chocolate.
Mrs. Fields' same-store sales were
up more than 2% in 2004 compared with 2003, says Dale Thompson,
vice president of marketing. And the biggest growth area
this year, he projects, will be the company's decadent,
iced cookie cakes, which retail for up to $25.
•Making better-for-you moves.
Nabisco, a unit of Kraft Foods, says it recently cracked
the code and developed a recipe for its classic Oreos that
will be sold and labeled, by the year's end, with zero grams
of trans fats. And it expects to virtually eliminate most
artery-clogging trans fats from its cookies by year's end.
The cookie maker also is touting "portion
control" with 100-calorie, single-serve packs of (creamless!)
Oreos and Chips Ahoy Thin Crisps. It's working: Since their
introduction in July, the products already rank among the
company's best sellers.
So it's no accident that a 100-calorie
Kid Sense Fun Pack of Teddy Grahams Cubs has just been launched.
"This appeals to parents trying to manage kids' nutrition,"
says Nabisco's Senackerib. Keebler plans to mimic Nabisco
in June with Keebler Right Bites — 100-calorie packs
of Chips Deluxe and Sandies.
•Bringing back ad icons.
Get ready for the return of Ernie the Elf. Keebler consumer
research shows that consumers didn't fall for the newer
elves the company concocted, "But they love Ernie," Davidson
says. Ernie will show up in ads and on packages. The old
Keebler jingle is making a return, too.
•Going for a dip. Last
month, Nabisco launched Chips Ahoy Sticks — thumb-length
cookies shaped like square sticks for dipping into yogurt
or chocolate.
•Making cookies portable.
With its Whims canisters, Pepperidge Farm isn't the only
one making cookies portable. Nabisco is introducing Oreo
Twins — single-serve packs of two Oreos sold in boxes
of 24.
•Mixing it up with candies.
Cookie bars such as Cookies & Snickers and Cookies
& M&M's from Mars have been hits. Hershey has begun
to sell Hershey's Cookies and Reese's Cookies (both in packs
of four) with zero grams of trans fats.
Fighting cookie rejection
All of this might not be enough. Meet
Ellen Mondro — a cookie maker's worst nightmare. She
is a consumer who says she has abandoned packaged cookies
for good. A year ago, Mondro, a Boston mother of two sons,
ages 4 and 7, virtually stopped buying cookies. Family members
used to each gobble three or four cookies a night before
bed.
Now, it's fruit or other better-for-you
snacks — except on occasions when she bakes cookies
from refrigerated cookie dough. "I grew up with a lot of
Oreos in the house," she says. "But I'm smarter now."
Similarly, Marie Lehman of Hillsborough,
Calif., buys cookies only on family vacations. That's a
big drop from the bag a week that her family used to consume.
"I turned 50 and wanted to get rid
of the extra weight," she says. And daughter Sloane, 15,
is following Mom's lead. When Sloane recently had seven
friends for a party, the girls nixed the idea of cookies
and Häagen-Dazs ice cream for fresh fruit.
Nor can cookie makers count on their
old friends. Nearly 40% of adults says they're eating fewer
cookies than just one year ago, researcher Mintel says.
Perhaps Debbi Fields got out just in
time. The founder of Mrs. Fields cookies retired in 2000.
She says she doesn't have a solution for the industry's
woes. "My only claim to fame is my ongoing love of warm
chocolate chip cookies," she says.
Even Girl Scouts have taken a hit.
Girl Scouts don't keep a national tab
on cookie sales. But one of the few growth areas for cookie
sales this year in Madison, Wis., was among consumers who
donated money — but didn't take the cookies. That's
what about 4% of buyers did, says Barbara Wiers, a spokeswoman
for the Girl Scouts of Black Hawk Council.
But don't look for Girl Scouts to forsake
their cookie tradition any time soon, Wiers says. "No one's
saying we need to be selling apples and oranges.