Centenarians are different from the rest
of us, and it's not just that they are a lot older. They
are a select group, having persisted through wars, diseases,
disasters and accidents that kill tens of millions of
ordinary mortals every year.
In looking at what makes a 100-year-old
so special -- an extremely small percentage live to that
age or older -- those who study aging cite factors such
as genetics (particularly having two X chromosomes, as
85 percent of centenarians are women) and environmental
influences, including good nutrition and health habits.
But a statistical study of centenarians
by researchers at the University of Chicago has found
other potential predictors of extreme longevity.
Women and men who were the first born
in large families, the study found, were two to three
times more likely to make it to 100 than later-born children.
Those raised in the rural West had a better chance of
reaching 100. And those born in October and November had
longer life expectancies than those born in April through
June.
So if you are a fall baby, the first child
of a farming couple from Boise, are you a safe bet to
make it to 100?
Hardly, experts say. Factors such as birth
month play a small role, at best, in the likelihood of
reaching advanced age and are overwhelmed by others. Still,
the odd predictors may say interesting things about what
makes one person live so long.
"In the case of birth order, we were really
surprised," said Leonid Gavrilov of the National Opinion
Research Center at the University of Chicago.
Gavrilov and his wife, Natalia Gavrilova,
sifted 75 million computerized genealogical records to
identify centenarians born from 1875 to 1899, then consulted
Social Security death records and census data to find
more about the circumstances of their lives. The study
was prepared for the Society of Actuaries.
What may improve the chances of first-borns
reaching 100 is that, in general, they are born of relatively
young parents. Sperm and eggs can become damaged over
time, so children of older parents may have more health
problems related to genetics.
Similarly, birth month -- which has been
correlated to life expectancy in other studies -- may
be an indication of seasonal vitamin deficiencies or seasonal
illnesses such as flu that affect childhood health, with
an impact later in life.
In the United States, those health problems
were more serious a century ago, when current centenarians
were born, than now, when foods are fortified, fresh vegetables
are available year round, vaccines are commonplace, and
sanitation is better.
"Those are things that we just wouldn't
experience these days," said Thomas Perls, a professor
at Boston University Medical Center and director of the
New England Centenarian Study. "That was a time when people
lost a quarter of their kids to childhood illnesses."
So birth month, even if it had some importance
in the late 19th century, may no longer have much of a
role in longevity.
If so, those who study the very old will
have plenty of chances to find out, because the number
of centenarians is booming. From the approximately 50,000
centenarians counted in the 2000 census, demographers
expect the number to soar; one census estimate is there
will be about 800,000 by the middle of this century.