The number of obese children will grow dramatically in
the coming years and so will their death rates from heart
disease, according to a pair of studies from the United
States and Denmark
published.
"If we don't take steps
to reverse course, the children of each successive generation
seem destined to be fatter and sicker than their parents,"
said David Ludwig of Children's Hospital Boston in
a commentary in the New
England Journal of Medicine, where the studies
appear.
The Danish study, which tracked more than one quarter
of a million school children in Copenhagen
from 1930 to 1976, found that overweight children grew
up to have more heart problems, particularly the boys.
The heavier they were as youngsters, particularly entering
their teens, the greater the risk.
For example, a 13-year-old boy who was 25 pounds (11.2
kg) above the average weight was found to be 33 percent
more likely than a child of normal weight to have a heart
attack or some other problem caused by coronary
heart disease (CHD) by age 60.
The finding "suggests that more children than ever
before are facing increased risks of CHD in adulthood,"
said the team led by Jennifer Baker of the Center for
Health and Society in Copenhagen.
About 17 percent of boys and 16 percent of girls now
in the United States -- more than 9 million total -- are
overweight.
The second study reported that out of this group, 25
percent of the boys now are obese, and that number is
expected to increase to 30 to 37 percent by 2020, when
they turn 35.
For females in that group, 32 percent of whom now are
obese, the ratio will rise to 34 to 44 percent, according
to that research team, led by Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo
of the University
of California, San Francisco.
That will lead to more heart disease, diabetes and high
blood pressure at a younger age, and even aggressive treatment
will not be able to stem the trend, they reported.
By 2035, the prevalence of heart disease will have increased
by 5 to 16 percent, they estimated.
"Barring a major advance in the treatment of either
excessive weight gain itself or its associated alterations
in blood pressure, lipid levels and glucose metabolism,
current adolescent overweight will have a substantial
effect on public health far into the future," they
concluded.
"My colleagues and I have predicted that pediatric
obesity may shorten life
expectancy in the United States by 2 to 5 years
by mid-century -- an effect equal to that of all cancers
combined," said Ludwig.
He also warned that "without effective intervention,
the costs of obesity might well become catastrophic, arising
not only from escalating medical expenses but also from
diminished worker productivity caused by physical and
psychological disabilities."