More Cover-Ups in Ukraine: WHO Withholds
Gene Sequences As Cases Double Again
After infected cases double again in the Ukraine plague approaching
the
1 million mark, the World Health Organization (WHO) is holding back
gene sequences which could provide evidence of the mutation or recombination
of the H1N1 or novel virus.
The numbers of cases from the latest
update from Ukraine total 910, 640 hospitalized and Influenza
cases (including acute respiratory illess). A total of 135 people
have die according to official statistics.
More than half of the Oblasts and cities listed exceed the epidemic
threshold, including Kiev and Kiev Oblast, raising concerns that
the increase in case numbers will accelerate. Moreover, hospitalization
of 39,603 raises concerns that the number of deaths will also
accelerate.
Although the WHO has suggested that these alarming numbers may
reflect sub-standard medical and housing conditions, the transmission
rates suggest something far more alarming.
However, because the virus already has demonstrated an ability
to cause fatal infections in a disproportionate number of children
and previously healthy adults, small changes in the virus could
lead to increases in viral load leading to an increase in cytokine
storm frequency and hemorrhagic pneumonia, as reported for earlier
cases.
Despite huge differences in transmission and death rates, the
agency stated
last Tuesday that it was valid to assume that most of the
cases of influenza reportedly combing through the Ukraine were
caused by the pandemic A(H1N1) virus.
A virtual
press conference was held on November 5, 2009 with Greogory
Hartl, spokesperson for pandemic H1N1 and Dr. Keiji Fukuda, Special
Adviser to the Director-General on Pandemic Influenza.
Dr. Keiji Fukuda said that the WHO doesn't see any "big"
mutations in the samples being sequenced, which would refer to
reassortment or Tamiflu resistance. However, the changes seen
in Ukraine do not require "big" mutations. Small mutations,
such as single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) can have profound
effects for a virus like pandemic H1N1.
The rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine, coupled with the high frequency
of hemorrhagic pneumonia raise concerns that a small change is
leading to a more virulent virus. Similarly, the rapid spread
of the virus could also be affected by a small change in another
gene, which controls entry of the virus to cells and influences
tissue tropism.
Mill Hill in London has acknowledged that they have at least 15
H1N1 positive samples from Ukraine, which would identify a Ukranian
specific change. The delay in the announcement of sequence results
raises concerns that such changes have been detected, and such
changes are undergoing further analysis.
The number of cases in Ukraine continues to expand. The number
of patients with H1N1 symptoms is now approaching 1 million. Cases
have been increasing at almost 200,000 per day, so it is likely
that tomorrow's report will have over 1 million cases. This rapid
spread increases concern that the 15 sequences at Mill Hill contain
one or more of these small changes, which has led to a delay in
the announcement of sequence results.
More detail on the sequences at Mill Hill is overdue. The rapid
spread of H1N1 in Ukraine demands rapid sequence results. Continued
delay will only raise speculations and concerns.
Dr. Ott's interview with
Alexander S. Jones: Speculations
Surrounding Ukraine Plague
Part 1
Part 2
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